03/15: YBCP 07: Hideki Matsui
Posted by: James
Hideki Matsui
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).
Three-year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook: Hideki Matsui was the model of reliability over the course of his career and maintained very impressive consecutive games streaks both in MLB (518 games) and combined with his Japanese league experience (1,768 games). Those streaks came to a crashing end on May 11th against the Red Sox when Godzilla dove for a ball and ended up severely hurting his wrist. Now, wrist injuries are a dangerous thing as they can linger and often take quite a long time to recover from (just ask Nick Johnson). However, it is a testament to both Matsui's resilience and work ethic that he was able to heal, get himself into playing condition before the end of the season and then tattoo the ball on his return.
In any case, it's a little surprising that 4 years into his Yankees tenure, I'm still not entirely sure what to expect from Godzilla. He was a ground-ball machine in his first season, then showed a big-time jump in power in the midst of a great season in 2004 and while his power numbers slumped in 2005, Godzilla set career highs in batting average (.306), hits (192), doubles (45), triples (3), RBI (116) and total bases (312). So, you have one down year, one high year and one year in the middle (leaning towards higher). Last year, In his limited playing time, Matsui displayed the same amount of power that he had in 2005 and a better batting eye (much more in line with his stellar 2004). In addition, he ended up hitting far more flyballs than he had at any time in his career while showing struggles against left-handers for the first time in his career. Now, whether those numbers were just a statistical anomoly is something that we won't be completely sure of until the year is over. Whatever happens, it's great to see Godzilla ready to play the full season and with his determination, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he felt he needed to redeem himself for last year and make up for lost time.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).
Three-year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
SEASON | Team | G | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 162 | 584 | 174 | 107 | 34 | 2 | 31 | 109 | 108 | 88 | 103 | 3 | 0 | .298 |
2005 | Yankees | 162 | 629 | 192 | 121 | 45 | 3 | 23 | 108 | 116 | 63 | 78 | 2 | 2 | .305 |
2006 | Yankees | 51 | 172 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 23 | 1 | 0 | .302 |
2007 | 129 | 485 | 147 | 92 | 29 | 1 | 25 | 87 | 90 | 75 | 76 | 2 | 1 | .303 | |
2007 | CHONE | 447 | 129 | 84 | 26 | 1 | 18 | 69 | 64 | 51 | 66 | 2 | 1 | .289 | |
2007 | Marcel | 326 | 97 | 62 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 57 | 39 | 50 | 2 | 1 | .298 | |
2007 | ZiPS | 498 | 146 | 95 | 31 | 1 | 19 | 85 | 100 | 58 | 77 | 1 | 1 | .293 |
SEASON | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 13.1 % | 17.6 % | 0.85 | .390 | .522 | .912 | .224 | .318 |
2005 | Yankees | 9.1 % | 12.4 % | 0.81 | .367 | .496 | .863 | .191 | .320 |
2006 | Yankees | 13.6 % | 13.4 % | 1.17 | .393 | .494 | .887 | .192 | .312 |
2007 | Bill James | 13.4 % | 15.7 % | 0.99 | .399 | .522 | .920 | .219 | .318 |
2007 | CHONE | 10.2 % | 14.8 % | 0.77 | .364 | .472 | .836 | .183 | .306 |
2007 | Marcel | 10.7 % | 15.3 % | 0.78 | .372 | .494 | .866 | .196 | .317 |
2007 | ZiPS | 10.4 % | 15.5 % | 0.75 | .367 | .474 | .841 | .181 | .316 |
Outlook: Hideki Matsui was the model of reliability over the course of his career and maintained very impressive consecutive games streaks both in MLB (518 games) and combined with his Japanese league experience (1,768 games). Those streaks came to a crashing end on May 11th against the Red Sox when Godzilla dove for a ball and ended up severely hurting his wrist. Now, wrist injuries are a dangerous thing as they can linger and often take quite a long time to recover from (just ask Nick Johnson). However, it is a testament to both Matsui's resilience and work ethic that he was able to heal, get himself into playing condition before the end of the season and then tattoo the ball on his return.
In any case, it's a little surprising that 4 years into his Yankees tenure, I'm still not entirely sure what to expect from Godzilla. He was a ground-ball machine in his first season, then showed a big-time jump in power in the midst of a great season in 2004 and while his power numbers slumped in 2005, Godzilla set career highs in batting average (.306), hits (192), doubles (45), triples (3), RBI (116) and total bases (312). So, you have one down year, one high year and one year in the middle (leaning towards higher). Last year, In his limited playing time, Matsui displayed the same amount of power that he had in 2005 and a better batting eye (much more in line with his stellar 2004). In addition, he ended up hitting far more flyballs than he had at any time in his career while showing struggles against left-handers for the first time in his career. Now, whether those numbers were just a statistical anomoly is something that we won't be completely sure of until the year is over. Whatever happens, it's great to see Godzilla ready to play the full season and with his determination, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he felt he needed to redeem himself for last year and make up for lost time.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
---|
03/14: The Latest from A-Rod
Posted by: Patrick
A-Rod was on Mike and the Mad Dog (listen here) to talk about his situation, contract, etc.
From Cliff:
From Cliff:
On the 2007 season: "It's a do or die situation. Either New York is going to kick me out of New York this year . . . At some point, either New York is going to say, I've had enough of this guy get him the hell out of here, and we have an option, or New York is going to say, hey, you know what, we won a World Championship, you had a big year, you're a part of it, we want you back. . . . I want to make sure from the fans, management, I'm wanted here."
03/14: Cuts Made
Posted by: Patrick
Some cuts were made yesterday after the Yankees loss. They are Eric Duncan, Brett Gardner, Alberto Gonzalez, Steven Jackson, Jeff Kennard, Juan Miranda, Jose Tabata and Kevin Whelan.
Via Peter Abraham.
Via Peter Abraham.
Posted by: Patrick
Peter Abraham mentioned that Don Mattingly's father has passed away. He will be away from the team for a few days. Our thoughts are with him and his family.
Posted by: Patrick
I just wanted to post a reminder, for anyone who is into fantasy baseball, please take a look at the YanksBlog.com Fantasy Baseball League. It's drafting on the 16th. If you do join, please don't forget to e-mail me. Thanks.
Posted by: Patrick
Our next interview is with Benjamin Kabak of River Ave. Blues.
When you aren't doing something related to or depending on the Yankees, what are you up to?
When I'm not thinking or dreaming about the Yankees, discussing baseball, watching baseball or sitting at Yankee Stadium, I'm working at my day job for one of the major sports leagues. I'm also blogging on the New York City subways at Second Ave. Sagas. Being from New York, I'm a big fan of things very New York specific. I love the subways; I love the Yankees. And I'm glad I've been able to share my passion for both with readers of my blogs.
When you aren't doing something related to or depending on the Yankees, what are you up to?
When I'm not thinking or dreaming about the Yankees, discussing baseball, watching baseball or sitting at Yankee Stadium, I'm working at my day job for one of the major sports leagues. I'm also blogging on the New York City subways at Second Ave. Sagas. Being from New York, I'm a big fan of things very New York specific. I love the subways; I love the Yankees. And I'm glad I've been able to share my passion for both with readers of my blogs.
03/13: Tuesday Links
Posted by: Patrick
Peter Abraham has a picture of Hideki shaking hands with Red Sox pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima. Quite the media event back in Japan.
Mr. Abraham also mentions Andy Pettitte's simulated game from yesterday. He pitched to 17 hitters. 9 of which were Andy Phillips. The other at bats were taken by Cody Ehlers and Justin Christian. He allowed 4 hits (3 singles).
The best part, I think, is that Donnie played 1st base during the game. The post mentions that Mattingly made a play on a hit by Phillips and scooped a low Jeter throw. Good stuff. Tyler Kepner also has an entry on the game where he observes that there were players wearing #6, #22 and #51 on the field... but none of them were who you'd expect and he has no idea who they were.
Commenter Mattingly fan over at Lohud points to the Rawlings All-Time Gold Glove Team ballot. Former Yankees up on the ballots include Jim Kaat, Donnie, J.T. Snow, Bobby Richardson, Derek Jeter, Paul Blair and Dave Winfield.
Finally, Steve mentioned that Robinson Cano is in the new New Era commercial. Watch it below:
Mr. Abraham also mentions Andy Pettitte's simulated game from yesterday. He pitched to 17 hitters. 9 of which were Andy Phillips. The other at bats were taken by Cody Ehlers and Justin Christian. He allowed 4 hits (3 singles).
The best part, I think, is that Donnie played 1st base during the game. The post mentions that Mattingly made a play on a hit by Phillips and scooped a low Jeter throw. Good stuff. Tyler Kepner also has an entry on the game where he observes that there were players wearing #6, #22 and #51 on the field... but none of them were who you'd expect and he has no idea who they were.
Commenter Mattingly fan over at Lohud points to the Rawlings All-Time Gold Glove Team ballot. Former Yankees up on the ballots include Jim Kaat, Donnie, J.T. Snow, Bobby Richardson, Derek Jeter, Paul Blair and Dave Winfield.
Finally, Steve mentioned that Robinson Cano is in the new New Era commercial. Watch it below:
03/12: YBCP 07: Alex Rodriguez
Posted by: James
Alex Rodriguez
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in July - Don't forget this; it's not like his career is winding down - this man has plenty left in the tank).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook: First off, let me apologize. It was our fault that A-Rod had the season that he had. Our very optimistic predictions for what he would do last year was the straw that broke the camel's back. He can take a lot...but the burden of trying to reach our expectations did him in. Luckily, he & I have sat down and talked about realistic goals to make this relationship work.
In all seriousness though, last season wasn't a great one for Alex. Still, the man finished with a .290 /.392/.523/.915 line with 35 HRs, 121 RBIs and 140 OPS+. It's only because of A-Rod's stratospheric highs and immense talent that we believe that 2005 was a "bad year". He went through his share of struggles and was (in my mind) unfairly reprimanded by fans, by Joe Torre (#8 slot...that was not very classy, Joe) and MLB (Joe Crede miraculously wins the Silver Slugger).
As a result of all this negativity, I've run into a lot of people who are really down on Alex and what he provides to the Yankees...to which I have to reply...really? You're going to start to devalue A-Rod already? I mean, come on. He had one very bad month in June of last year. Here's an interesting little exercise; take out those 22 horrible, no good games in July and look at his numbers before that stretch (.303/.404/.554/.958 with a HR every 15 ABs) and after (.306/.398/.556/.953 with a HR every 15.16 ABs). Remarkably consistent, no? There isn't a rational fan alive who wouldn't take that performance from his third baseman every single year. Oh, and you know what I recall - there was another guy on the team who had a horrid stretch a couple years back (and for longer than one month too). If you can't cut A-Rod the same amount of slack, fine - at least give him some.
In any case, going into this year, A-Rod's apparently lost a decent amount of weight and honed his approach at the plate with new batting coach Kevin Long. I think that the lower weight will really help him in the defense dept. (as will having his buddy Minky at first instead of Giambi). How it affects his swing is something that I'm probably not qualified to address. However, if a reduction in weight helps him to get the bat on the ball quicker, thus leading to more hits (depending on BABIP of course), harder hits and less Ks (as Steve L. points out, his K rate has been steadily increasing the past 4 years), I'm all for it; now go do your thing Alex.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in July - Don't forget this; it's not like his career is winding down - this man has plenty left in the tank).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
SEASON | Team | G | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 155 | 601 | 172 | 110 | 24 | 2 | 36 | 112 | 106 | 80 | 131 | 28 | 4 | .286 |
2005 | Yankees | 162 | 605 | 194 | 116 | 29 | 1 | 48 | 124 | 130 | 91 | 139 | 21 | 6 | .321 |
2006 | Yankees | 154 | 572 | 166 | 104 | 26 | 1 | 35 | 113 | 121 | 90 | 139 | 15 | 4 | .290 |
2007 | Bill James | 159 | 607 | 178 | 106 | 29 | 1 | 42 | 119 | 124 | 91 | 143 | 16 | 6 | .293 |
2007 | CHONE | 556 | 164 | 99 | 26 | 2 | 37 | 110 | 104 | 79 | 121 | 13 | 4 | .295 | |
2007 | Marcel | 521 | 154 | 96 | 24 | 1 | 33 | 100 | 102 | 74 | 119 | 17 | 4 | .296 | |
2007 | ZiPS | 589 | 169 | 110 | 26 | 1 | 32 | 108 | 126 | 88 | 138 | 16 | 3 | .287 |
SEASON | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 11.7 % | 21.8 % | 0.61 | .375 | .512 | .888 | .226 | .313 |
2005 | Yankees | 13.1 % | 23.0 % | 0.65 | .421 | .610 | 1.031 | .289 | .349 |
2006 | Yankees | 13.6 % | 24.3 % | 0.65 | .392 | .523 | .914 | .233 | .329 |
2007 | Bill James | 13.0 % | 23.6 % | 0.64 | .395 | .552 | .947 | .259 | .322 |
2007 | CHONE | 12.4 % | 21.8 % | 0.65 | .392 | .549 | .941 | .254 | .319 |
2007 | Marcel | 12.4 % | 22.8 % | 0.62 | .390 | .536 | .925 | .240 | .328 |
2007 | ZiPS | 13.0 % | 23.4 % | 0.64 | .387 | .497 | .884 | .210 | .327 |
Outlook: First off, let me apologize. It was our fault that A-Rod had the season that he had. Our very optimistic predictions for what he would do last year was the straw that broke the camel's back. He can take a lot...but the burden of trying to reach our expectations did him in. Luckily, he & I have sat down and talked about realistic goals to make this relationship work.
In all seriousness though, last season wasn't a great one for Alex. Still, the man finished with a .290 /.392/.523/.915 line with 35 HRs, 121 RBIs and 140 OPS+. It's only because of A-Rod's stratospheric highs and immense talent that we believe that 2005 was a "bad year". He went through his share of struggles and was (in my mind) unfairly reprimanded by fans, by Joe Torre (#8 slot...that was not very classy, Joe) and MLB (Joe Crede miraculously wins the Silver Slugger).
As a result of all this negativity, I've run into a lot of people who are really down on Alex and what he provides to the Yankees...to which I have to reply...really? You're going to start to devalue A-Rod already? I mean, come on. He had one very bad month in June of last year. Here's an interesting little exercise; take out those 22 horrible, no good games in July and look at his numbers before that stretch (.303/.404/.554/.958 with a HR every 15 ABs) and after (.306/.398/.556/.953 with a HR every 15.16 ABs). Remarkably consistent, no? There isn't a rational fan alive who wouldn't take that performance from his third baseman every single year. Oh, and you know what I recall - there was another guy on the team who had a horrid stretch a couple years back (and for longer than one month too). If you can't cut A-Rod the same amount of slack, fine - at least give him some.
In any case, going into this year, A-Rod's apparently lost a decent amount of weight and honed his approach at the plate with new batting coach Kevin Long. I think that the lower weight will really help him in the defense dept. (as will having his buddy Minky at first instead of Giambi). How it affects his swing is something that I'm probably not qualified to address. However, if a reduction in weight helps him to get the bat on the ball quicker, thus leading to more hits (depending on BABIP of course), harder hits and less Ks (as Steve L. points out, his K rate has been steadily increasing the past 4 years), I'm all for it; now go do your thing Alex.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
---|
Posted by: Patrick
Mike took a look at his team in the Yankees Bloggers League. That seemed like a good idea, so I thought that I'd do the same for my team. Here is how my draft went (round to the left, overall pick in parentheses):
03/11: YBCP 07: Derek Jeter
Posted by: James
Derek Jeter
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook:In 2006, Derek had one of the finest seasons in his already impressive career. It was something of an upset that DJ didn't win the 2006 MVP over Justin Morneau (I'm not saying that Jeter was THE MVP...but he was def. more valuable than Morneau). It was a renaissance of sorts as Jeter put up the second highest OPS+ of his career and won the Silver Slugger at SS with the second highest batting average (second in the AL), OBP and SLG in his career. All of this while surpassing 2,000 hits in his age 32 season.
Derek started off last season with a bang with a ridiculous April and after a brief dip in March, remained on fire throughout the rest of the year. Seriously, look through his splits and it's fairly difficult to find instances where Jeter didn't perform. He hit well on the road (great at home) and against righties (he BOMBED lefties - nice little weapon to have to break up a lefty laden line-up, no?). Heck, his worst month was a .292/.360/.372/.732 line that he put up in May while the next lowest OPS was .813 in June.
So what do we have to think about when considering Jeter's contributions for the coming year? Well, for one thing, most scouts note that good hitters eventually learn more patience at the plate age. Seemingly, that seems to be happening as Jeter, who has always been a hacker, has brought his walk rate up to double digits and has now maintained that rate for the two seasons. Along with that seems to have come an even greater tendency to hit grounders. Jeter has always been a groundball hitter but he's really become more so over the last two years. For the moment, he can beat out some of those grounders but in time, that could prove to be a problem. Finally, you've got to start thinking about some regression to the mean. It's certainly expected (it's not often that someone maintains a .394 BABIP for an entire season) but you know - he's the Captain; it never really surprises me what he is capable of.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
SEASON | Team | G | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 154 | 643 | 188 | 120 | 44 | 1 | 23 | 111 | 78 | 46 | 99 | 23 | 4 | .292 |
2005 | Yankees | 159 | 654 | 202 | 153 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 122 | 70 | 77 | 117 | 14 | 5 | .309 |
2006 | Yankees | 154 | 623 | 214 | 158 | 39 | 3 | 14 | 118 | 97 | 69 | 102 | 34 | 5 | .343 |
2007 | 158 | 644 | 203 | 149 | 35 | 2 | 17 | 117 | 81 | 70 | 111 | 24 | 7 | .315 | |
2007 | CHONE | 593 | 183 | 130 | 34 | 3 | 16 | 110 | 70 | 61 | 98 | 18 | 4 | .309 | |
2007 | Marcel | 557 | 173 | 123 | 31 | 3 | 16 | 100 | 73 | 56 | 95 | 20 | 4 | .311 | |
2007 | ZiPS | 625 | 189 | 137 | 34 | 2 | 16 | 111 | 92 | 66 | 110 | 21 | 4 | .302 |
SEASON | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 6.7 % | 15.4 % | 0.46 | .352 | .471 | .823 | .179 | .317 |
2005 | Yankees | 10.5 % | 17.9 % | 0.66 | .389 | .450 | .839 | .141 | .353 |
2006 | Yankees | 10.0 % | 16.4 % | 0.68 | .417 | .483 | .900 | .140 | .394 |
2007 | 9.8 % | 17.2 % | 0.63 | .393 | .455 | .848 | .140 | .360 | |
2007 | CHONE | 9.3 % | 16.5 % | 0.62 | .383 | .457 | .840 | .148 | .349 |
2007 | Marcel | 9.1 % | 17.1 % | 0.59 | .382 | .463 | .845 | .153 | .352 |
2007 | ZiPS | 9.6 % | 17.6 % | 0.60 | .378 | .440 | .818 | .138 | .347 |
Outlook:In 2006, Derek had one of the finest seasons in his already impressive career. It was something of an upset that DJ didn't win the 2006 MVP over Justin Morneau (I'm not saying that Jeter was THE MVP...but he was def. more valuable than Morneau). It was a renaissance of sorts as Jeter put up the second highest OPS+ of his career and won the Silver Slugger at SS with the second highest batting average (second in the AL), OBP and SLG in his career. All of this while surpassing 2,000 hits in his age 32 season.
Derek started off last season with a bang with a ridiculous April and after a brief dip in March, remained on fire throughout the rest of the year. Seriously, look through his splits and it's fairly difficult to find instances where Jeter didn't perform. He hit well on the road (great at home) and against righties (he BOMBED lefties - nice little weapon to have to break up a lefty laden line-up, no?). Heck, his worst month was a .292/.360/.372/.732 line that he put up in May while the next lowest OPS was .813 in June.
So what do we have to think about when considering Jeter's contributions for the coming year? Well, for one thing, most scouts note that good hitters eventually learn more patience at the plate age. Seemingly, that seems to be happening as Jeter, who has always been a hacker, has brought his walk rate up to double digits and has now maintained that rate for the two seasons. Along with that seems to have come an even greater tendency to hit grounders. Jeter has always been a groundball hitter but he's really become more so over the last two years. For the moment, he can beat out some of those grounders but in time, that could prove to be a problem. Finally, you've got to start thinking about some regression to the mean. It's certainly expected (it's not often that someone maintains a .394 BABIP for an entire season) but you know - he's the Captain; it never really surprises me what he is capable of.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
---|