Posted by: James
David Gassko at The Hardball Times checks in and notes that they have completed a fairly large and complex project: three years worth of projections for almost 1300 players. Per Dave, they used the most most granular data available to us and complex aging analysis to generate projections three years into the future. From that process he points out ten things that he learned about what could happen next season and two Yankees figure prominently in the article.
He also had some thoughts on Chien-Ming Wang.
Those are the positive points - I'd check out the book (which based on the two annuals I've purchased from THT and the accompanying article sounds great) once it's available to see how the rest of the Yankees project. Until then, I'll refer you to Fangraphs.com
All those projections will be available in the 2007 Season Preview, but here are a few to whet your appetite: The best fielder in the game is Everett, who is projected to be 19 runs above average at shortstop. Scott Rolen does slightly better in terms of runs—he’s at +20—but at an easier position. And guess who else projects to 19 runs above average?
If you guessed Alex Rodriguez … well, you didn’t. But our data shows that A-Rod was so great in 2004-05 that even a poor season last year can’t keep him from being one of the best fielders in baseball. Before you scoff, I’d like to remind you that Rodriguez won two Gold Gloves at shortstop before coming to the Yankees. Would it be that surprising for him to be great at third base as well?
If you guessed Alex Rodriguez … well, you didn’t. But our data shows that A-Rod was so great in 2004-05 that even a poor season last year can’t keep him from being one of the best fielders in baseball. Before you scoff, I’d like to remind you that Rodriguez won two Gold Gloves at shortstop before coming to the Yankees. Would it be that surprising for him to be great at third base as well?
He also had some thoughts on Chien-Ming Wang.
I can’t recall the last time I got so many pissed off e-mails as I did after running a column suggesting that Chien-Ming Wang would see a strong decline next season.
That assumption was based off batted ball data, but only a year’s worth, with some pretty crude assumptions. These projections are based on up to four year’s worth of batted ball data as well as more basic outcome statistics. And the verdict is … Wang is awesome.
We project a 3.82 ERA next season despite a 63/41 K/BB ratio, mainly because Wang is projected to allow just 12 home runs all year.
That assumption was based off batted ball data, but only a year’s worth, with some pretty crude assumptions. These projections are based on up to four year’s worth of batted ball data as well as more basic outcome statistics. And the verdict is … Wang is awesome.
We project a 3.82 ERA next season despite a 63/41 K/BB ratio, mainly because Wang is projected to allow just 12 home runs all year.
Those are the positive points - I'd check out the book (which based on the two annuals I've purchased from THT and the accompanying article sounds great) once it's available to see how the rest of the Yankees project. Until then, I'll refer you to Fangraphs.com
02/22: BP Breakdown
Posted by: James
Man, do I love the LoHud Yankees blog. Pete A. is a good guy and there's basically up to the minute notes on the major Yankees news. There's also little things like how each pitcher did when going through batting practice. The one that is bound to get Yanks fans salivating? Phil Hughes of course.
I know that I got a little bold happy there...and yes, I know that these guys are rusty and probably seeing this kid for the first time...but still, it is nice to be this excited about a prospect, no? Hit up the link to see how everyone else (Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Igawa, Pavano and Sanchez) did.
Phil Hughes (34 pitches, faced Giambi, Chavez, Pratt, Matsui): Phil Franchise threw only half his pitches for strikes by my count. But eight of the strikes were fouled off and only two were put in play. The rest were unhittable. Chavez and Pratt had what looked like singles. As “Ain’t No Other Man” by Christina Aguilera played, Hughes showed a ridiculous curveball and the ability to spot his fastball inside or outside. “You almost never see that at this stage of the spring,” said Ben Davis, who caught him. “He has filthy stuff,” Giambi said. Matsui took the worst swing you’ll ever see him take at a Hughes fastball.
I know that I got a little bold happy there...and yes, I know that these guys are rusty and probably seeing this kid for the first time...but still, it is nice to be this excited about a prospect, no? Hit up the link to see how everyone else (Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Igawa, Pavano and Sanchez) did.
02/22: Potential Rotation?
Posted by: Patrick
Peter Abraham mentions that, as far as pitchers throwing batting practice today, this is the lineup: Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Igawa, Pavano, Hughes and Sanchez.
It may mean nothing, but it could be a tentative outline for the rotation. Who knows.
It may mean nothing, but it could be a tentative outline for the rotation. Who knows.
02/21: Thank You, Bubba Crosby
Posted by: Patrick
I would just like to thank Bubba Crosby for giving us something to talk about besides Jeter/A-Rod, Mo and Bernie. Here is what Bubba said:
Oh, man. If you produce... produce in what? In the minors, Bubba Crosby is a .279 hitter with a .348 OBA. In the minors. At the major league level, that drops to .216 and .255. I understand that he had limited at bats. But, when you have guys like Hideki Matsui, Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield, Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu and even... eh... Kenny Lofton, you better believe you are gonna need to perform in those limited at bats to get a shot at more regular playing time. And, even then, good luck.
Is he really going to get 261 at bats with Cincinnati? I guess we'll have to see... maybe if someone gets injured?
I'm pretty much in agreement with Mark Feinsand here.
"Even being a fifth outfielder for a National League team, you're going to get three times as many at-bats as I would if I were with the Yankees again," Crosby said. "It's exciting to know I can play my game. Sometimes I'd get the green light, but I'd get the stare from Joe (Torre) that said I better be sure. Then you hesitate and just wait for (Hideki) Matsui to hit a two-run homer." ...
"I think I just got labeled with the Yankees as a utility outfielder. I never got a chance to hit a whole lot in New York," Crosby said. "There they used two extra outfielders, they had an offensive guy, which was Bernie (Williams) last year, and a defensive one, which was me. I'd go out and do my part, but if my spot came in the order to hit, Bernie would hit for me." ...
"I hit every spring training. I got to the big leagues with the Dodgers because I could hit," Crosby said. "I was ready to see what I can do, hitting. I knew I could go out there in spring and lead the whole camp in hitting and it wouldn't matter, I'd still be the fifth outfielder. It's nice to go to an organization that if you produce, you're going to play."
"I think I just got labeled with the Yankees as a utility outfielder. I never got a chance to hit a whole lot in New York," Crosby said. "There they used two extra outfielders, they had an offensive guy, which was Bernie (Williams) last year, and a defensive one, which was me. I'd go out and do my part, but if my spot came in the order to hit, Bernie would hit for me." ...
"I hit every spring training. I got to the big leagues with the Dodgers because I could hit," Crosby said. "I was ready to see what I can do, hitting. I knew I could go out there in spring and lead the whole camp in hitting and it wouldn't matter, I'd still be the fifth outfielder. It's nice to go to an organization that if you produce, you're going to play."
Oh, man. If you produce... produce in what? In the minors, Bubba Crosby is a .279 hitter with a .348 OBA. In the minors. At the major league level, that drops to .216 and .255. I understand that he had limited at bats. But, when you have guys like Hideki Matsui, Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield, Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu and even... eh... Kenny Lofton, you better believe you are gonna need to perform in those limited at bats to get a shot at more regular playing time. And, even then, good luck.
Is he really going to get 261 at bats with Cincinnati? I guess we'll have to see... maybe if someone gets injured?
I'm pretty much in agreement with Mark Feinsand here.
Now, I’m not sure what Crosby thinks his role should have been with the Yankees, but if he thinks he should have been starting over Matsui, Damon, Williams, Sheffield or whoever else was playing out there for New York, he’s insane. Crosby is a nice bench player, one with speed and defensive ability. But why do you think he hit well in the spring? Because he was largely facing pitchers who were not big-leaguers.
Isn’t it amazing how players love to rip Torre and the Yankees on the way out? What do they all have in common? They weren’t that good to begin with.
Isn’t it amazing how players love to rip Torre and the Yankees on the way out? What do they all have in common? They weren’t that good to begin with.
Posted by: Patrick
Michael Geffner witnessed something interesting after Jeter had finished addressing the media. He said that he saw A-Rod "race" over to Jeter's locker where the two talked for a couple of minutes (A-Rod did most of the talking, apparently) and shared a laugh. Now, if that happened, are things as bad as they seem? (Or, perhaps, as some would want them to seem?) I mean, yeah, it's simple, but... there is no doubt some meaning there something, no?
(Just kidding on the subject, by the way).
(Just kidding on the subject, by the way).
02/21: Bernie's Not Coming
Posted by: Patrick
From MLB.com:
Williams has apparently rejected the Yankees' offer of a non-roster invitation to camp and is not expected to report to the team's Legends Field facility. His agent, Scott Boras, informed The Associated Press of Williams' intentions.
"Other than the invite, there wasn't any information that led him to believe he would be a member of the team," Boras told The AP on Tuesday. "He's continuing to work out [and] will wait to see if their position changes." ...
"If he wanted to be here, he'd be here," Cashman said. "You'd have to be stupid not to interpret the answer. He's given us the answer."
"Other than the invite, there wasn't any information that led him to believe he would be a member of the team," Boras told The AP on Tuesday. "He's continuing to work out [and] will wait to see if their position changes." ...
"If he wanted to be here, he'd be here," Cashman said. "You'd have to be stupid not to interpret the answer. He's given us the answer."
Posted by: James
Everyone just keep this in your back pocket until the end of the year...especially when Scott Boras starts evangelizing about how A-Rod has plenty of options and is considering all of them. Alex didn't actually say that he wouldn't excercise his option but he did say the following:
It almost sounds as if he's still making up his mind. Hmm...Also, if you haven't checked out Bronx Comix yet, do so now. Hilarious stuff.
However, he did say he wanted to be part of the 2009 Yankees.
"I want to be a Yankee and I understand my contract and I understand my options," Rodriguez said. "My goal is to go in with Derek [Jeter] and Mo [Mariano Rivera] and open the new [Yankee] Stadium. It's pretty clear."
"I want to be a Yankee and I understand my contract and I understand my options," Rodriguez said. "My goal is to go in with Derek [Jeter] and Mo [Mariano Rivera] and open the new [Yankee] Stadium. It's pretty clear."
It almost sounds as if he's still making up his mind. Hmm...Also, if you haven't checked out Bronx Comix yet, do so now. Hilarious stuff.
Posted by: Patrick
Here are some of Jeter's thoughts in response to A-Rod's comments.
He also said that A-Rod has never felt a lack of support from him and that they've talked about it. Peter Abraham has the audio. It's only 4 minutes and 21 seconds, so I'd recommend a listen. (We'll have to come up with a nickname for Mr. Abraham... The Audio Man? That's a little straightforward, but it's nice to listen to the interviews uncut without any editorial speculation).
It's normal for relationships to change, over time, and for people to grow apart. It happens a lot. This just isn't that big a deal. And I'm not worried about it affecting anything. Your average work relationship is not "best friends." People can respect each other and get work done without being best friends.
"Has our relationship changed? I've had a lot of relationships change over the years. But what we do away from the field, how much time we spend together really makes no difference when we're playing." ...
When asked if getting the truth about their friendship-turned-coexistence out in the open is for the best, Jeter said, "You have to ask him. I didn't bring it up. You have to ask him if it's a good idea to get it out of the way. To me it was never an issue I felt we needed to talk about."
When asked if getting the truth about their friendship-turned-coexistence out in the open is for the best, Jeter said, "You have to ask him. I didn't bring it up. You have to ask him if it's a good idea to get it out of the way. To me it was never an issue I felt we needed to talk about."
He also said that A-Rod has never felt a lack of support from him and that they've talked about it. Peter Abraham has the audio. It's only 4 minutes and 21 seconds, so I'd recommend a listen. (We'll have to come up with a nickname for Mr. Abraham... The Audio Man? That's a little straightforward, but it's nice to listen to the interviews uncut without any editorial speculation).
It's normal for relationships to change, over time, and for people to grow apart. It happens a lot. This just isn't that big a deal. And I'm not worried about it affecting anything. Your average work relationship is not "best friends." People can respect each other and get work done without being best friends.
Posted by: Patrick
The Veterans Committee will be voting on 27 different candidates. There are 84 voters in all and, like the writers HOF ballot, you must get 75% (or 63 voters) of the vote for inclusion.
The players ballot features former Yankees Bobby Bonds, Rocky Colavito, Wes Ferrell, Joe Gordon, Jim Kaat, Mickey Lolich, Sparky Lyle, Roger Maris, Carl Mays, Thurman Munson, Lefty O'Doul and Luis Tiant. It also features Joe Torre.
The composite ballot features former Yankees player and manager Billy Martin, former General Manager Gabe Paul and former Yankees broadcaster Bill White.
The players ballot features former Yankees Bobby Bonds, Rocky Colavito, Wes Ferrell, Joe Gordon, Jim Kaat, Mickey Lolich, Sparky Lyle, Roger Maris, Carl Mays, Thurman Munson, Lefty O'Doul and Luis Tiant. It also features Joe Torre.
The composite ballot features former Yankees player and manager Billy Martin, former General Manager Gabe Paul and former Yankees broadcaster Bill White.
Posted by: James
ESPN has a story up that A-Rod has acknowledged that his relationship with Derek Jeter has cooled. Does anyone care? No, really - anyone? Well, in case you did, here's what Alex had to say:
Yes, it's a silly discussion and hardly deserves a bold ESPN headline, but you know what, the answers that A-Rod gives in the article seem surprisingly frank. It's worth a read.
In my mind, Derek and Alex don't have to be best friends - they are who they are at this point in both their careers and their lives and the Yankees depend on both. If they were best buddies, that would be cool but you know what? It should really be a moot issue, especially if both players play to the best of their abilities. Naturally, with the fixation on the Yankees and A-Rod in general, it won't be so expect more and more of these silly little stories to come up in the Year of A-Rod (or as I would hope, the Year of A-Rod's Redemption).
Update: Pete A. has audio from A-Rod's interview so you might want to check that out as well.
"We were best of friends about 10, 13, 14, years ago, and we still get along well. We have a good working relationship. I cheer very hard for him. He cheers hard for me. And most importantly, we're both trying to win a world championship," Rodriguez said.
...
"The reality is there's been a change in the relationship over 14 years and, hopefully, we can just put it behind us," Rodriguez said. "You go from sleeping over at somebody's house five days a week, and now you don't sleep over. It's just not that big of a deal."
During the offseason, former Yankee Darryl Strawberry said Jeter needs to "embrace" Rodriguez. A-Rod said he didn't feel Jeter needed to support him more.
"I'm a big boy. I'm 31 years old now, so I should be able to help myself out there," he said. "I care about what he thinks about me on the field. I think it's important for us to be on the right page. And we are. We're here to win a championship together."
...
"The reality is there's been a change in the relationship over 14 years and, hopefully, we can just put it behind us," Rodriguez said. "You go from sleeping over at somebody's house five days a week, and now you don't sleep over. It's just not that big of a deal."
During the offseason, former Yankee Darryl Strawberry said Jeter needs to "embrace" Rodriguez. A-Rod said he didn't feel Jeter needed to support him more.
"I'm a big boy. I'm 31 years old now, so I should be able to help myself out there," he said. "I care about what he thinks about me on the field. I think it's important for us to be on the right page. And we are. We're here to win a championship together."
Yes, it's a silly discussion and hardly deserves a bold ESPN headline, but you know what, the answers that A-Rod gives in the article seem surprisingly frank. It's worth a read.
In my mind, Derek and Alex don't have to be best friends - they are who they are at this point in both their careers and their lives and the Yankees depend on both. If they were best buddies, that would be cool but you know what? It should really be a moot issue, especially if both players play to the best of their abilities. Naturally, with the fixation on the Yankees and A-Rod in general, it won't be so expect more and more of these silly little stories to come up in the Year of A-Rod (or as I would hope, the Year of A-Rod's Redemption).
Update: Pete A. has audio from A-Rod's interview so you might want to check that out as well.
