Mike Mussina
Age: 38 Years Old (Turns 39 in December).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2003	Yankees	17	8	3.40	31	31	2	214.2	192	86	81	21	40	195
2004	Yankees	12	9	4.59	27	27	1	164.2	178	91	84	22	40	132
2005	Yankees	13	8	4.41	30	30	2	179.2	199	93	88	23	47	142
2006	Yankees	15	7	3.51	32	32	1	197.1	184	88	77	22	35	172
2007	Bill James	14	7	3.60	32	32		190.0	188			22	40	161
2007	CHONE			3.77				186.0	189	85	78	24	39	146
2007	Marcel	12	8	4.27				177.0	188	91	84	22	44	141
2007	ZiPS	13	8	3.91	30	30		184.0	189	88	80	21	43	148

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2003	Yankees	8.18	1.68	4.88	0.88	.241	1.08	.294	72.5 %	3.26
2004	Yankees	7.21	2.19	3.30	1.20	.277	1.32	.319	68.2 %	4.10
2005	Yankees	7.11	2.35	3.02	1.15	.282	1.37	.326	72.5 %	4.19
2006	Yankees	7.84	1.60	4.91	1.00	.248	1.11	.296	70.4 %	3.51
2007	Bill James	7.63	1.89	4.03	1.04	.260	1.20	.307		3.71
2007	CHONE	7.06	1.89	3.74	1.16	.265	1.23	.304	74.5 %	4.05
2007	Marcel	7.17	2.24	3.20	1.12	.274	1.31	.317	70.8 %	4.05
2007	ZiPS	7.24	2.10	3.44	1.03	.267	1.26	.312	71.1 %	3.78

Outlook: I said at the beginning of the 2006 season that if anyone can figure out a way to work and thrive with a new set of tools, the Moose from Stanford can. At that point, Mussina's fastball was topping out at 90 mph (he had barely even touched that high early on in 2005) when he used to consistently hit the low 90s. I couldn't figure out if his two sub-par seasons were mainly due to injuries or simply erosion of skills.

Well, Moose blew that latter thought right out of the water with a great contract year performance. His final line over 197.1 IP was impressive; 172 strikeouts (8th in the AL), the 4th best ERA in the AL as well as the the 3rd best WHIP and BAA. Though he did show less of a propensity to go long in his starts, he got his K rate back up while driving his BB rate and BAA down. Now what was the cause of the turnaround? Was it the spring training discovery by Jorge Posada that Mussina was tipping his changeup? Was it that Mike was finally healthy for most of the year? Or was it simply the contract year phenomena coming into play? Whatever the case, Mussina was consistently solid for the full year and that translated into a new two-year, $23 million contract in the offseason.

So what can we look forward to from Moose in 2007? Well, if he's healthy, I would expect much of the same from Mussina though there are obviously concerns that need to be factored in. As with Andy Pettitte, age is certainly a concern for Mussina as he's logged 3,210 innings over his career and 135 innings in the postseason. To give you a little perspective, from just the 2002 season on, Mike threw a total of 15,211 pitches and that's even accounting for two years where he had arm troubles. Still, this is Mike Mussina where talking about here...a potential Hall of Famer who could solidify his place in history with two more good seasons. As smart as Moose is, I'd wager that he's well aware of where he stands on the all time ranks and I'm sure that he knows what he needs to do to guarantee himself a trip to Cooperstown...his body just has to cooperate.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

I'm bummed about Wang going down. I was looking forward to seeing a home grown, 27 year old coming off a Cy quality season, getting the start on opening day.

There are two main implications here. First, Peter Abraham says (noting that he'll be pitching on 643 days rest) that it looks like Carl Pavano will be your opening day starter.

The other one is that Spring Training hot (and solid last year) Jeff Karstens is now lined up for the 5th spot in the rotation. Karstens is 24. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in the rotation to start the season. I suppose that's a positive here. (Or, hopefully, it will be).

Kei Igawa
Age: 27 Years Old (Turns 28 in July).

Japanese League History.

SEASON	Team	G	CG	GS	W	L	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
2001	HT	29	3	25	9	13	192	174	11	89	171	76	57	2.67
2002	HT	31	8	21	14	9	209	163	15	53	206	63	58	2.49
2003	HT	29	8	21	20	5	206	184	15	58	179	72	64	2.80
2004	HT	29	6	23	14	11	200	190	29	54	228	95	83	3.73
2005	HT	27	2	25	13	9	172	199	23	60	145	91	74	3.86
2006	HT	29	8	21	14	9	209	180	17	49	194	77	69	2.97

Outlook: Kei is probably the player that Yankees fans have the least expectations for...if only because no one knows right now what kind of pitcher he can be. I mean, at least Carl Pavano has some sort of track record in the majors so you can project somewhat. No one really knows how Igawa's stuff will translate from the Japanese leagues.

Well, what do we know at this point? Igawa was one of the best and most durable left-handed starters in Japan. His rep. seems to be that he has a average to below-average tailing fastball that sits in the high 80s and can be kicked up to the low 90s on occasion. His other pitches look to be what has been called a slider/curve/slurve in the high 70s and so far, has shown no issues with throwing off-speed stuff when behind hitters. He was scouted as having average command and plus control, though that has been hard to see this spring training. However, both Torre and Posada have actually commended Igawa’s pitches (though what else are they going to say?) but obviously, they need to the consistency of the pitches improve. A lot of people have mentioned that Kei seemed to be overthrowing sometimes so maybe he was trying to impress his teammates (hey, that would be only natural). Still, he is teachable and when Ron Guidry' advised him on how to better finish his delivery, he readily followed the instructions and it seems to have helped.

In any case, this assortment of pitches, despite his makeup and aggressiveness on the mound, does not make up a potential ace. Heck, Cashman himself said that Igawa would be making tons of adjustments in his first year so not to expect a ton (well, not in those exact words, he's quite a bit more eloquent than I am). So the first question will be; can he get out hitters consistently in the AL? At that point, depending on effectiveness of course, the question evolves into where Kei slots. Is he good enough to be an innings eater in rotation (is he a #3/#4/#5?) or will he end up in the pen as long-man and take Ron Villone's job? Considering Igawa's signed for the next five years ($26MM bid, $20 MM over 5 years), it will be interesting to find just what the Yankees have purchased because I don't think the Japanese league takes refunds (see Matsui, Kaz).

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

Carl Pavano
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in January).

Three-Year History and three-year splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	Marlins	18	8	3.00	31	31	2	222.1	212	80	74	16	49	139
2005	Yankees	4	6	4.77	17	17	1	100.0	129	66	53	17	18	56
2006	Yankees (A+)	0	2	2.31	3	3	0	11.2	10	6	3	2	3	10
2006	Yankees (AA)	1	0	1.64	3	3	0	11.0	6	2	2	0	0	12
2006	Yankees (AAA)	1	0	3.00	1	1	0	6.0	8	2	2	0	1	5
2007	Bill James	5	4	4.15	14	14		78.0	84			8	20	50
2007	CHONE			4.40				90.0	99	48	44	13	22	53
2007	Marcel	4	4	4.50				70.0	79	38	35	9	18	45
2007	ZiPS	8	7	4.64	20	20		128.0	150	73	66	16	30	66

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	Marlins	5.63	1.98	2.84	0.65	.253	1.17	.287	76.9 %	3.69
2005	Yankees	5.04	1.62	3.11	1.53	.314	1.47	.331	67.8 %	5.07
2006	Yankees (A+)	7.71	2.31	3.33	1.54	.233	1.11	.259	71.4 %	4.74
2006	Yankees (AA)	9.82	0.00	12.00	0.00	.162	0.55	.240	71.4 %	1.29
2006	Yankees (AAA)	7.50	1.50	5.00	0.00	.321	1.50	.402	77.8 %	2.03
2007	Bill James	5.77	2.31	2.50	0.92	.276	1.33	.309		4.17
2007	CHONE	5.30	2.20	2.41	1.30	.281	1.34	.300	72.1 %	4.77
2007	Marcel	5.79	2.31	2.50	1.16	.286	1.39	.315	71.3 %	4.53
2007	ZiPS	4.64	2.11	2.20	1.13	.294	1.41	.312	67.9 %	4.50

Outlook: "Glass Carl" took his game to another level last year. Pavano broke down after a few good starts in 2005 and Yanks fans haven't seen him pitch in a MLB game since then. Combine that with the sometimes absurd assortment of injuries and the stories/rumors that he was/is unhappy in NY and I think you can imagine the bad taste in most fan's mouths.

Well, as I said last year...what's done is done. Pavano is still under contract for two more years and it is in everyone's best interest that Pavano pitch...and pitch well. That's the only way this can work out for the Yankees if they want any sort of return on their $40 million dollar investment. Don't forget, this guy can actually be a good pitcher. He's got a good fastball that he can locate anywhere in the strike zone, a good slider and a decent splitter and change-up. There was a reason he was being pursued so hard by teams when he was a free agent, so if he can stay healthy and pitch to his ability (which he has only done once since 1998), maybe the Yankees will actually see the pitcher they signed so long ago.

Still, to do this, Pavano will have to somehow overcome his own bad luck and injury-riddled nature. If he can somehow stay healthy, there are still a lot of questions to be answered. I mean, who knows what kind of arm strength Pavano has built up to this point? When you combine a history of arm trouble with extended time off from from pitching, it doesn't exactly bode well for a full healthy season. On a personal level, he will also have to win back the trust of the fans, and more importantly, the rest of his teammates. What kind of effect this will have on his pitching remains to be seen. In the end, I guess all we know about Pavano is that we just don't know what he can or will contribute to the Yankees this year. Your guess is as good as mine.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

Looks like the Yanks will be starting the season without their 2006 ace, as it appears Chien-Ming Wang pulled a hamstring while sprinting on Friday.

Kudos to Kei Igawa for now being able to make this team by default without Torre having to be drilled by the media and kudos to myself for not putting in my projections for Wang this year before this story broke.

From Yahoo! Sports:


He'll now begin experimental treatments.

I guess the biggest piece would be Alex Belth's sit down with the man, the myth, the legend...and erstwhile blogger, Curt Schilling. It doesn't matter what you think of the man himself, the interview is certainly worth a look (and the accompanying picture in the interview is...less than flattering).

Oh, and have I mentioned that I love Peter A.'s sense of humor?

Speaking of humor, Bronx Comix is pretty funny in its own right. If you haven't checked that site out, I can vouch for it - it's good stuff.

Another great site that I stumbled upon recently (mostly due to Mike A. over at River Ave Blues) is Project Prospect. They have a good group of guys who do a lot of good work on the minor leagues, prospects and up and coming players. They also dabble in fantasy baseball and advanced metrics but what caught my eye was a recent article on how soon Phil Hughes can help the Yankees.

Finally, Dayn Perry at FoxSports has a list of some impressive milestones that can be reached in 2007.

Andy Pettitte
Age: 34 Years Old (Turns 35 in June).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2003	Yankees	21	8	4.02	33	33	1	208.1	227	109	93	21	50	180
2004	Astros	6	4	3.90	15	15	0	83.0	71	37	36	8	31	79
2005	Astros	17	9	2.39	33	33	0	222.1	188	66	59	17	41	171
2006	Astros	14	13	4.20	36	35	2	214.1	238	114	100	27	70	178
2007	Bill James	13	11	3.69	33	33		210.0	214			19	60	164
2007	CHONE			4.10				193.0	207	96	88	22	57	136
2007	Marcel	12	10	3.95				189.0	193	90	83	21	57	150
2007	ZiPS	15	9	4.10	32	31		193.0	204	96	88	24	50	140

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2003	Yankees	7.78	2.16	3.60	0.91	.279	1.33	.336	68.0 %	3.52
2004	Astros	8.57	3.36	2.55	0.87	.233	1.23	.289	71.6 %	3.67
2005	Astros	6.92	1.66	4.17	0.69	.231	1.03	.273	79.7 %	3.25
2006	Astros	7.47	2.94	2.54	1.13	.283	1.44	.331	72.0 %	4.18
2007	Bill James	7.03	2.57	2.73	0.81	.265	1.30	.313		3.71
2007	CHONE	6.34	2.66	2.39	1.03	.276	1.37	.312	72.6 %	4.24
2007	Marcel	7.14	2.71	2.63	1.00	.266	1.32	.310	72.9 %	4.01
2007	ZiPS	6.53	2.33	2.80	1.12	.273	1.32	.308	71.7 %	4.14

Outlook: For the Yankees' biggest acquisition of the offseason, 2006 was certainly an up and down season. Actually, check that. Pettitte had one heck of a bad start and after his 13th start of the year on June 3rd, his line stood at 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA. From that point on, he was lights out and over his last 22 starts and 136.2 innings, he gave up 137 hits, walked 43 and struck out 122 while maintaining a 3.16 ERA. That was impressive enough for the Yankees to swoop in and bring Andy back for a cool 16 million (and an player option next year for the same).

Of course, there are risks with all pitchers and Pettitte is no exception. First, there's the question of his age. Andy is certainly no spring chicken and has 2,312 regular season and 212 postseason innings of wear and tear on his arm. Then you have the issue of Andy's transition back to the American League after 3 years in the weaker league (trading in having to face a pitcher versus a DH is no joke). Other concerns revolve around the health of Andy's elbow though he's pitched two consecutive 200 IP seasons (222, 214 IP respectively) after an injury plagued 2004.

After considering all that, I guess the final question becomes; if healthy, which 34 year old NL pitcher are we now discounting? The workhorse who averaged out to a 4.20 ERA last season or the #1/#2 pitcher who threw up a 3.2 ERA over his last 22 starts? When you add in a .5 run league adjustment, you're talking about a fairly large difference in production. In either case, for this Yankee fan, it doesn't matter that Andy and his family actually live in Houston...it's nice to see him back home in the Bronx.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

From SI.com:


Via MLB.com.

Chien-Ming Wang
Age: 26 Years Old (Turns 27 March 31st).

Two-Year History, two-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2005	Yankees	8	5	4.02	18	17	0	116.1	113	58	52	9	32	47
2006	Yankees	19	6	3.63	34	33	2	218.0	233	92	88	12	52	76
2007	Bill James	14	10	3.91	32	32		214.0	237			15	53	102
2007	CHONE			4.10				182.0	207	90	83	15	45	74
2007	Marcel	14	7	3.97				179.0	187	83	79	14	49	81
2007	ZiPS	12	9	4.28	29	28		183.0	202	95	87	16	48	79

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2005	Yankees	3.64	2.48	1.47	0.70	.256	1.25	.270	67.2 %	4.38
2006	Yankees	3.14	2.15	1.46	0.50	.275	1.31	.291	72.2 %	3.96
2007	Bill James	4.29	2.23	1.92	0.63	.282	1.36	.307		3.97
2007	CHONE	3.66	2.23	1.64	0.74	.287	1.38	.304	70.8 %	4.28
2007	Marcel	4.07	2.46	1.65	0.70	.270	1.32	.290	71.2 %	4.20
2007	ZiPS	3.89	2.36	1.65	0.79	.281	1.37	.299	68.1 %	4.26

Outlook: Chien-Ming Wang is an enimga. To some, he's an overachiever who will fall back to earth soon, a pure statistical anomaly. To others, he's a star in the making. However, to Yankees' fans (and the people of Taiwan), it doesn't matter - he's a fan favorite. He is home-grown, throws strikes and goes deep into games while going about his business like a stand-up guy.

After a first year where he helped to solidify an unstable and fragile Yankees' rotation, there were a lot of questions raised over what Obi-Wang could realistically provide the Yankees. First and foremost, there were durability concerns. 218 innings last year, 5th in the AL, answered that one. Success with such a low K rate? Last year, he was the AL's 2nd best pitcher (coming in second in AL Cy Young race) with an even lower K rate. Was he just lucky? His BABIP last year was .21 points higher than 05 and he still had success. On top of that, he showed better walk numbers and a lower HR rate.

Is this sustainable? The biased Yankee part of me says yes and you know what, the value analyst in me agrees. I get it, he has a great power sinker with no real great secondary pitches..but people tend to forget that Neil Allen only taught Wang the sinker before the 2005 season at AAA Columbus. Amazingly enough, Wang is still learning to use the pitch! Second, a true sinker-baller is only as good as the defense behind him and the Yankee defense should be better for him this whole season. Finally, Chien-Ming is now more than a full year removed from shoulder problems and any restrictions placed on him last year are fully off. All those should combine for an interesting season from the defacto ace of the Yankees.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA