09/21: Let's Talk Blue Birds
Posted by: James
Well, here we go. This is obviously an important series for the Yanks but who are we kidding, all three of the remaining ones are.
Still, with all the euphoria of Boston's division lead collapsing (but not gone away completely. so the job's not done ), this would be the typical place for a Yankee let down. Let's be serious - it's not like this team hasn't clawed back earlier this year only to fade away when they should have been capitalizing on Red Sox losses. They made pushes in both June and in mid-August before losing some pretty putrid games.
Still, I'm not trying to be a downer so let's just move on to this series. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Friday: RHP Roy Halladay (15-7, 3.82) vs. RHP Chien-Ming Wang (18-7, 3.82), 7:05
Saturday: RHP Shaun Marcum (12-6, 4.15) vs. RHP Ian Kennedy (1-0, 1.89), 1:05
Sunday: RHP Dustin McGowan (11-9, 3.84) vs. RHP Roger Clemens (6-6, 4.18), 1:05
Monday: RHP A.J. Burnett (8-7, 3.42) vs. RHP Phil Hughes (4-3, 4.75), 1:05
If you look at those match-ups and think to yourself, wow, Toronto has a pretty nice set of starters (not including 22 year old Jesse Litsch who has a line of 6-9 with a 4.16 ERA), you aren't kidding. Since the all-star break, they have been far and away the best staff (including bullpen) in the majors. Since the ASB, they have only gone 34-31 but take a look at the rest of the stats: 3.41 ERA with 6 CG, a .243 BAA and a K/BB ratio of 2.44:1 in 580.1 IP. That's impressive - even more so when you look at where the Yankees are (17th, 45-21, 4.52 ERA, 0 CG and a .276 BAA).
I started to dig a little deeper into those pitching numbers and if you go back farther past the ASB, Toronto actually looks even better. Since May 10th (when they were swept out at home by Boston) and their team ERA stood at 4.96, they have been very good, especially for a team in the AL East. In the 118 games since then, Toronto has put up a 3.65 ERA as a team. For perspective, there are three pitchers on the entire Yankees roster with an ERA under that: Mo, Joba and IPK. The peripherals are good too. A BAA line of .244/.306/.375/.681 with a 2.41 K:BB ratio in over 1084 IP.
So with that kind of staff, why has the team only gone 64-54 (.542) in that time period? Well, their hitting is not nearly as good as the pitching. Over the same 118 games, Toronto has managed to put up a line of .257/.325/.415/.740 (generally equivalent to what Jose Molina has put up for the Yankees). If you look at their roster, you have three guys with OPS+ of 100 or over, Troy Glaus, Alexis Rios, Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs. With Glaus (and Wells and for all intents and purposes Overbay) now out for the year, Toronto's line-up is fairly weak and can certainly be pitched to. If the Yankees pitchers are on their game, they should be able to hold the Jays' offense to a few runs each game and then, it'll be up to the Yankees hitters to do their jobs.
Helping the cause is that 3 out of the 4 Jays' starters pitch worse on the road than at home. Halladay (3.12 ERA at home vs a 4.59 ERA on the road), Dustin McGowan (3.18 vs.4.50) and A.J. Burnett (2.62 vs. 4.24) loved their Canadian digs while Shawn Marcum was the only exception (5.66 vs. 2.71).
So there's what the Yankees are up against. It's a formidable pitching staff with weak hitters..against a formidable hitting team and two rookie starters. It should be an interesting series - let's go Yankees (and Scott Kazmir)!
Still, with all the euphoria of Boston's division lead collapsing (but not gone away completely. so the job's not done ), this would be the typical place for a Yankee let down. Let's be serious - it's not like this team hasn't clawed back earlier this year only to fade away when they should have been capitalizing on Red Sox losses. They made pushes in both June and in mid-August before losing some pretty putrid games.
Still, I'm not trying to be a downer so let's just move on to this series. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Friday: RHP Roy Halladay (15-7, 3.82) vs. RHP Chien-Ming Wang (18-7, 3.82), 7:05
Saturday: RHP Shaun Marcum (12-6, 4.15) vs. RHP Ian Kennedy (1-0, 1.89), 1:05
Sunday: RHP Dustin McGowan (11-9, 3.84) vs. RHP Roger Clemens (6-6, 4.18), 1:05
Monday: RHP A.J. Burnett (8-7, 3.42) vs. RHP Phil Hughes (4-3, 4.75), 1:05
If you look at those match-ups and think to yourself, wow, Toronto has a pretty nice set of starters (not including 22 year old Jesse Litsch who has a line of 6-9 with a 4.16 ERA), you aren't kidding. Since the all-star break, they have been far and away the best staff (including bullpen) in the majors. Since the ASB, they have only gone 34-31 but take a look at the rest of the stats: 3.41 ERA with 6 CG, a .243 BAA and a K/BB ratio of 2.44:1 in 580.1 IP. That's impressive - even more so when you look at where the Yankees are (17th, 45-21, 4.52 ERA, 0 CG and a .276 BAA).
I started to dig a little deeper into those pitching numbers and if you go back farther past the ASB, Toronto actually looks even better. Since May 10th (when they were swept out at home by Boston) and their team ERA stood at 4.96, they have been very good, especially for a team in the AL East. In the 118 games since then, Toronto has put up a 3.65 ERA as a team. For perspective, there are three pitchers on the entire Yankees roster with an ERA under that: Mo, Joba and IPK. The peripherals are good too. A BAA line of .244/.306/.375/.681 with a 2.41 K:BB ratio in over 1084 IP.
So with that kind of staff, why has the team only gone 64-54 (.542) in that time period? Well, their hitting is not nearly as good as the pitching. Over the same 118 games, Toronto has managed to put up a line of .257/.325/.415/.740 (generally equivalent to what Jose Molina has put up for the Yankees). If you look at their roster, you have three guys with OPS+ of 100 or over, Troy Glaus, Alexis Rios, Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs. With Glaus (and Wells and for all intents and purposes Overbay) now out for the year, Toronto's line-up is fairly weak and can certainly be pitched to. If the Yankees pitchers are on their game, they should be able to hold the Jays' offense to a few runs each game and then, it'll be up to the Yankees hitters to do their jobs.
Helping the cause is that 3 out of the 4 Jays' starters pitch worse on the road than at home. Halladay (3.12 ERA at home vs a 4.59 ERA on the road), Dustin McGowan (3.18 vs.4.50) and A.J. Burnett (2.62 vs. 4.24) loved their Canadian digs while Shawn Marcum was the only exception (5.66 vs. 2.71).
So there's what the Yankees are up against. It's a formidable pitching staff with weak hitters..against a formidable hitting team and two rookie starters. It should be an interesting series - let's go Yankees (and Scott Kazmir)!
Scott wrote: