03/18: YBCP 07: Jason Giambi
Posted by: James
Jason Giambi
Age: 36 Years Old (Turns 37 in January).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook: Well, from 2005 on, Jason has been inconsistent in his inconsistency. In 2005, he was bad in the first half, great in the second but for 2006, he decided to change it up a little. Why be consistent for a full half – let's go up and down every month. If you don't believe me, just look at the splits – you can get out of breath just looking at these peaks and valleys! When Jason was good, he was one of the best, and most patient, hitters in the majors. When he was bad, the man couldn't buy a hit. Still, even in those down times, he remained a patient hitter, working counts and wearing down starters. By the end of the year, Giambi finished with numbers any Yankee fan would take; .253/.413/.558 with 37 HRs and 113 RBIs, a season that would arguably be his second best year in pinstripes. There were other positives as well; he walked more than he struck out and badgered pitchers to the tune of 4.37 pitches per plate appearance. If anything, 2006 proved that his surge in 2005 was no fluke. Jason can still hit, is the best in the league at getting on base and can still mash. Honestly, his season would probably have been even better had he not gotten hurt (or more hurt) at the end of the season and therein lies the issue.
Everyone knows of Giambi's predilection to hit quite a bit better while playing first base (.224/.373/.531/.904 as a DH vs. .289/.459/.592/1.051 as a 1B). I don't know why it is but it just seems to be how Jason operates. It has been looked at repeatedly but humor me and look again at his splits as a DH since 2000 and as a 1B. Actually, 2006 was one of his better years as a DH – he actually slugged over .500, which was a first since 2001. Whatever the reason, Jason wants to be, and is a more potent weapon as, a first baseman. However, he simply cannot do it anymore. When he was sent out to the field last year, he didn't completely embarrass himself but it was getting close. His limited range keeps being whittled down even more each year, he has a bad/no arm and most importantly, wears down quickly. At 36 and on the books for an untradeable amount of $21 million a year for this year and next (not including his $5 buyout in 2009), the Yanks have decided to take the chance that a permanent move to DH gives them a less potent, but more healthy Giambi for the remainder of the contract.
In addition to that, the move should also help to protect Giambi's mercurial knee (injured in 2004) from further injury. This in turn would would allow Giambi to concentrate less on pulling the ball and more on spraying balls to all fields, which would make the shift usually employed against him less effective. Finally, Giambi is also probably due for a little bit of luck to swing his way as he was one of the unluckier players in baseball last year in terms of BABIP so this is one instance where a regression to the mean would come in handy.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 36 Years Old (Turns 37 in January).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
| SEASON | Team | G | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Yankees | 80 | 264 | 55 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 40 | 47 | 62 | 0 | 1 | .208 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 139 | 417 | 113 | 67 | 14 | 0 | 32 | 74 | 87 | 108 | 109 | 0 | 0 | .271 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 139 | 446 | 113 | 51 | 25 | 0 | 37 | 92 | 113 | 110 | 106 | 2 | 0 | .253 |
| 2007 | Bill James | 135 | 424 | 112 | 60 | 22 | 0 | 30 | 77 | 91 | 99 | 104 | 1 | 1 | .264 |
| 2007 | CHONE | 451 | 116 | 62 | 22 | 0 | 32 | 93 | 83 | 96 | 108 | 1 | 0 | .257 | |
| 2007 | Marcel | 435 | 109 | 60 | 20 | 0 | 29 | 75 | 88 | 91 | 104 | 2 | 1 | .251 | |
| 2007 | ZiPS | 394 | 95 | 51 | 17 | 0 | 27 | 70 | 97 | 91 | 97 | 1 | 0 | .241 |
| SEASON | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Yankees | 15.1 % | 23.5 % | 0.76 | .342 | .379 | .720 | .170 | .226 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 20.6 % | 26.1 % | 0.99 | .440 | .535 | .975 | .264 | .293 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 19.8 % | 23.8 % | 1.04 | .413 | .558 | .971 | .305 | .251 |
| 2007 | Bill James | 18.9 % | 24.5 % | 0.95 | .419 | .528 | .947 | .264 | .283 |
| 2007 | CHONE | 17.6 % | 23.9 % | 0.89 | .405 | .519 | .924 | .262 | .270 |
| 2007 | Marcel | 17.3 % | 23.9 % | 0.88 | .393 | .497 | .890 | .246 | .265 |
| 2007 | ZiPS | 18.8 % | 24.6 % | 0.94 | .400 | .490 | .890 | .249 | .252 |
Outlook: Well, from 2005 on, Jason has been inconsistent in his inconsistency. In 2005, he was bad in the first half, great in the second but for 2006, he decided to change it up a little. Why be consistent for a full half – let's go up and down every month. If you don't believe me, just look at the splits – you can get out of breath just looking at these peaks and valleys! When Jason was good, he was one of the best, and most patient, hitters in the majors. When he was bad, the man couldn't buy a hit. Still, even in those down times, he remained a patient hitter, working counts and wearing down starters. By the end of the year, Giambi finished with numbers any Yankee fan would take; .253/.413/.558 with 37 HRs and 113 RBIs, a season that would arguably be his second best year in pinstripes. There were other positives as well; he walked more than he struck out and badgered pitchers to the tune of 4.37 pitches per plate appearance. If anything, 2006 proved that his surge in 2005 was no fluke. Jason can still hit, is the best in the league at getting on base and can still mash. Honestly, his season would probably have been even better had he not gotten hurt (or more hurt) at the end of the season and therein lies the issue.
Everyone knows of Giambi's predilection to hit quite a bit better while playing first base (.224/.373/.531/.904 as a DH vs. .289/.459/.592/1.051 as a 1B). I don't know why it is but it just seems to be how Jason operates. It has been looked at repeatedly but humor me and look again at his splits as a DH since 2000 and as a 1B. Actually, 2006 was one of his better years as a DH – he actually slugged over .500, which was a first since 2001. Whatever the reason, Jason wants to be, and is a more potent weapon as, a first baseman. However, he simply cannot do it anymore. When he was sent out to the field last year, he didn't completely embarrass himself but it was getting close. His limited range keeps being whittled down even more each year, he has a bad/no arm and most importantly, wears down quickly. At 36 and on the books for an untradeable amount of $21 million a year for this year and next (not including his $5 buyout in 2009), the Yanks have decided to take the chance that a permanent move to DH gives them a less potent, but more healthy Giambi for the remainder of the contract.
In addition to that, the move should also help to protect Giambi's mercurial knee (injured in 2004) from further injury. This in turn would would allow Giambi to concentrate less on pulling the ball and more on spraying balls to all fields, which would make the shift usually employed against him less effective. Finally, Giambi is also probably due for a little bit of luck to swing his way as he was one of the unluckier players in baseball last year in terms of BABIP so this is one instance where a regression to the mean would come in handy.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|
Patrick wrote:
87 R
35 HR
117 RBI
1 SB
.262 AVG
.417 OBA
.549 SLG