07/11: Encyclopedia Brown & The Case of the Missing Power
Posted by: James
Over at WasWatching.com, Steve L. put up a post about a week ago where he disputed the notion that Derek Jeter’s power numbers were down from previous years. He didn't buy it so he showed that overall, Jeter’s slugging (.470) and isolated power, ISO = SLG - BA, (.121) are actually in line with production from his recent seasons.
A little while later, Benjamin Kabak over at Off The Façade looked a little closer at the numbers and correctly pointed out that looking at the overall numbers was misleading.
Still, both Steve and Ben, while answering their own questions, left me with one of my own; if Jeter's power is down, has it been his injured thumb that's been the culprit? Well, to answer the question, let's take a look at some data (woo hoo!).
First off, it's important to remember just how good Jeter's April numbers were. He lit up the league to the tune of .396/.505/.637/1.142 with 3 HRs and 20 RBI and was driving everything in sight (9 2Bs and 3 3Bs for a total of 15 XBHs). Now, I couldn't remember the exact day that Jeter went down due to the hand injury but looking at the numbers, I would have assumed it was May due to the drop-off in numbers (.292/.360/.372/.732 with 2 HRs and 3 2Bs). Well, it turns out that I was wrong. It was June 4th that Rodrigo Lopez hit Jeter in the right hand with a pitch (later diagnosed as a bruised thumb) so Jeter pulled off that May power-outage on his own. In fact, his overall numbers after the injury are actually better than what he put up before the injury (not including his torrid April). From May 1 to the game where he got hit, Jeter put up a line of .306/.381/.387/.768 (.081 ISO) with 4 2Bs and 2 HRs in 30 Games and 124 ABs. Since he came back, it's been .345/.411/.398/.809 (.053 ISO) with 6 2Bs and no HRs in 28 games (113 ABs). If we give him the first two games back to get acclimated and take them out of the equation, the line becomes .371/.429/.429/.857 (.058 ISO) with the same XBH total in 26 games and 105 ABs.
Well, those are the numbers and you can take away what you want. The thumb doesn't seem to be bothering him in terms of actually getting the bat on the ball as he's been hitting real well after coming back. However, it does look like it's affected his power, even if it's only a little bit. Here's my take, and you can take this with a pitcher of salt; after a hot April, Jeter "slumped" in May and rebounded in June and July. However, as he started getting hot again, lingering problems with his thumb haven't allowed him to drive the ball as he normally would be able to. Still, there's still a good half-season left so who knows what the next few months can bring? Jeter could very easily go on another tear like he did in April and even if he doesn't, there aren't many teams out there who have shortstops who are hitting .345 with a .422 OBP.
A little while later, Benjamin Kabak over at Off The Façade looked a little closer at the numbers and correctly pointed out that looking at the overall numbers was misleading.
While Steve’s analysis is correct in noting that Derek’s cumulative power numbers this season are in line with his numbers of years gone by, that is simply because he got off to a torrid start. During this so-called power outage, Derek’s power numbers are definitely down, and if the power outage lasts long enough, his season numbers will slide further as well. Remember: On May 16, Jeter’s slugging was .548 and his ISO power was .199. (.462 SLG and .117 ISO as of 7/11/06).
Still, both Steve and Ben, while answering their own questions, left me with one of my own; if Jeter's power is down, has it been his injured thumb that's been the culprit? Well, to answer the question, let's take a look at some data (woo hoo!).
First off, it's important to remember just how good Jeter's April numbers were. He lit up the league to the tune of .396/.505/.637/1.142 with 3 HRs and 20 RBI and was driving everything in sight (9 2Bs and 3 3Bs for a total of 15 XBHs). Now, I couldn't remember the exact day that Jeter went down due to the hand injury but looking at the numbers, I would have assumed it was May due to the drop-off in numbers (.292/.360/.372/.732 with 2 HRs and 3 2Bs). Well, it turns out that I was wrong. It was June 4th that Rodrigo Lopez hit Jeter in the right hand with a pitch (later diagnosed as a bruised thumb) so Jeter pulled off that May power-outage on his own. In fact, his overall numbers after the injury are actually better than what he put up before the injury (not including his torrid April). From May 1 to the game where he got hit, Jeter put up a line of .306/.381/.387/.768 (.081 ISO) with 4 2Bs and 2 HRs in 30 Games and 124 ABs. Since he came back, it's been .345/.411/.398/.809 (.053 ISO) with 6 2Bs and no HRs in 28 games (113 ABs). If we give him the first two games back to get acclimated and take them out of the equation, the line becomes .371/.429/.429/.857 (.058 ISO) with the same XBH total in 26 games and 105 ABs.
Well, those are the numbers and you can take away what you want. The thumb doesn't seem to be bothering him in terms of actually getting the bat on the ball as he's been hitting real well after coming back. However, it does look like it's affected his power, even if it's only a little bit. Here's my take, and you can take this with a pitcher of salt; after a hot April, Jeter "slumped" in May and rebounded in June and July. However, as he started getting hot again, lingering problems with his thumb haven't allowed him to drive the ball as he normally would be able to. Still, there's still a good half-season left so who knows what the next few months can bring? Jeter could very easily go on another tear like he did in April and even if he doesn't, there aren't many teams out there who have shortstops who are hitting .345 with a .422 OBP.
Seamus wrote: