03/22: More on Philip Hughes
Posted by: James
Aaron Gleeman is going through his annual Top 50 prospect list and Philip Hughes comes in at number 38. No more information here than what's already been said before but hey, if this many people are this high on the kid, we as fans can get a little excited, right? Here's what Aaron had to say (emphasis mine):
I'd check out the rest of the list as well. There won't be any more Yankees prospects on that list but reading Aaron's work is always pretty interesting.
This is a bit of a stretch for me in that I typically try to be overly cautious when it comes to pitchers who have yet to get past Single-A. However, Philip Hughes' combination of size, stuff, and early results is just too much to ignore. A 2004 first-round pick out of a California high school, Hughes tossed five scoreless innings in rookie-ball after signing and then began last season at low Single-A. He went 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 12 starts there, striking out 72 batters in 68.2 innings while walking just 16 and limiting opponents to a .192 batting average. He then moved up to high Single-A and kept dominating, going 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA, 21-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .140 opponent's batting average in 17.2 innings.
Hughes is the youngest pitcher in this top 50 and has as much upside as anyone, but he's also the only pitcher who hasn't advanced past Single-A. He was also limited to just 86.1 innings in 2005 because of shoulder problems, which means he'll have to stay healthy for a full season and continue to have success against more experienced competition before I get completely caught up in the hype. Until then I'll stick with this ranking, which will either be way too low (if he stays healthy and keeps blowing hitters away) or way too high (if he struggles with the same obsticles other top pitching prospects have had trouble getting past once they reach the upper minors) by this time next year.
Hughes is the youngest pitcher in this top 50 and has as much upside as anyone, but he's also the only pitcher who hasn't advanced past Single-A. He was also limited to just 86.1 innings in 2005 because of shoulder problems, which means he'll have to stay healthy for a full season and continue to have success against more experienced competition before I get completely caught up in the hype. Until then I'll stick with this ranking, which will either be way too low (if he stays healthy and keeps blowing hitters away) or way too high (if he struggles with the same obsticles other top pitching prospects have had trouble getting past once they reach the upper minors) by this time next year.
I'd check out the rest of the list as well. There won't be any more Yankees prospects on that list but reading Aaron's work is always pretty interesting.
Posted by: James
Kyle Farnsworth - Reliever
Age: 29 (Turns 30 in April).
Three-Year History and splits:
Outlook: It's always a little harder with the new guys since you don't have a Yankee track record to use and you haven't found out whether or not the player can handle the crucible of NY. It doesn't help that Kyle has a reputation as a little bit of a hothead in his career. To date, he hasn't handled pressure all that well (7.36 ERA in 11 innings of postseason work) and he has often lost focus on the mound (as many a Cub fan can attest to). It also doesn't help that Kyle seems to follow a pattern: odd years - good/great seasons, even years - medicocrity. Look at the graphs - it's like a rollercoaster ride! Take that for what you will.
Don't get me wrong though - I liked the signing a lot. Kyle only turns 30 years old in April (a good 7.5 years younger than the man he's replacing) and he strikes people out (9.09 K per 9 for his career), which is always a nice way to get out of a tight spot. He's also working on the mental aspect of his game by putting in some reading time . Hopefully, these practices have helped him grow as a person but I (seflishly, I know) also hope they keep him pitching like he did last year. Improvement in the playoffs would also be a plus but then again, as many people have pointed out, Flash wasn't exactly reliable in the playoffs either so he doesn't have a very high bar to jump over. Finally, while he has been uneven, overall, the general direction of his seasons has been better. In his latest bad season (2004), he gave up a line of .260/.348/.426/.769 which is a far cry from his previous off seasons (2002: .293/.370/.558/.924 and 2000: .291/.392/.476/.864). Farnsworth might have just turned the corner and established a consistent level of performance but it will be an interesting trend to watch.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 29 (Turns 30 in April).
Three-Year History and splits:
| SEASON | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | W | L | SV | HD | BlSv | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 77 | 76.1 | 53 | 31 | 28 | 6 | 36 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 3.30 |
| 2004 | 72 | 67.2 | 67 | 39 | 35 | 10 | 33 | 78 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 4.73 |
| 2005 | 72 | 70.0 | 44 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 27 | 87 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 2 | 2.19 |
Outlook: It's always a little harder with the new guys since you don't have a Yankee track record to use and you haven't found out whether or not the player can handle the crucible of NY. It doesn't help that Kyle has a reputation as a little bit of a hothead in his career. To date, he hasn't handled pressure all that well (7.36 ERA in 11 innings of postseason work) and he has often lost focus on the mound (as many a Cub fan can attest to). It also doesn't help that Kyle seems to follow a pattern: odd years - good/great seasons, even years - medicocrity. Look at the graphs - it's like a rollercoaster ride! Take that for what you will.
Don't get me wrong though - I liked the signing a lot. Kyle only turns 30 years old in April (a good 7.5 years younger than the man he's replacing) and he strikes people out (9.09 K per 9 for his career), which is always a nice way to get out of a tight spot. He's also working on the mental aspect of his game by putting in some reading time . Hopefully, these practices have helped him grow as a person but I (seflishly, I know) also hope they keep him pitching like he did last year. Improvement in the playoffs would also be a plus but then again, as many people have pointed out, Flash wasn't exactly reliable in the playoffs either so he doesn't have a very high bar to jump over. Finally, while he has been uneven, overall, the general direction of his seasons has been better. In his latest bad season (2004), he gave up a line of .260/.348/.426/.769 which is a far cry from his previous off seasons (2002: .293/.370/.558/.924 and 2000: .291/.392/.476/.864). Farnsworth might have just turned the corner and established a consistent level of performance but it will be an interesting trend to watch.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| G | Innings | W | L | BB | K | HD | SV | BlSv | ERA |
|---|
03/20: Al Leiter Retires
Posted by: Patrick
He only pitched 38 of his 419 games here, but it started here and it ended here, so I figure it's worth a note. Al Leiter has retired.
After retiring the only batter he faced on Sunday against Cleveland, two-time All-Star Al Leiter announced his retirement. ...
Leiter told manager Joe Torre and general manager Brian Cashman of his decision before the game, and it was decided that he would pitch following Randy Johnson until he got an out, which happened on a ground ball by Eduardo Perez, the first batter he faced.
Leiter told manager Joe Torre and general manager Brian Cashman of his decision before the game, and it was decided that he would pitch following Randy Johnson until he got an out, which happened on a ground ball by Eduardo Perez, the first batter he faced.
Posted by: James
Jaret Wright - Starting Pitcher
Age: 29 Years Old (Turns 30 in June).
Three-Year History and splits:
Outlook: Well, no one can say that they didn't see the signs. They were just ignored. Signing a starting pitcher off of one good season (where he worked with Leo Mazzone and in front of a good defense) following a storied history of arm trouble is not exactly the smartest move. Not surprisingly, Jaret's 2005 season justified all of these initial criticisms. He only pitched 20 innings in April (with an ERA of 9.19!) before he had to be shut down because of shoulder problems. When he came back, he had one good start against Toronto (who slaughtered him the next two times they saw him) and one good start apiece against Seattle and Tampa Bay. Outside of that, he was awful and ended the season with three starts where he averaged 2 innings and 3 earned runs per start. I give Jaret credit for rehabbing and working hard to come back from his initial shoulder problems but I simply don’t think that he has the strength or the stuff to be a starting pitcher in the AL. His K rate was horrible (4.81 per 9) which is a problem if you’re not a groundball pitcher. Couple that with awful control (almost 5 men per 9 innings) and you have the explanation for an ERA over 6.
To date, he has pitched 11.2 innings in spring training and has given up 21(!) hits and 12 earned runs. That's an ERA of 9.26 for those of you without your calculators handy, which is pretty close to what he did last April. In my mind, it would practically take a miracle for Jaret Wright to be a useful pitcher for the Yankees and if he lives up (or is it down) to my expectations, he would go down as one of the worst signings in Yankee history.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 29 Years Old (Turns 30 in June).
Three-Year History and splits:
| SEASON | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | W | L | SV | HD | BlSv | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 56.1 | 76 | 46 | 46 | 9 | 31 | 50 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7.35 |
| 2004 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 186.1 | 168 | 79 | 68 | 11 | 70 | 159 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -- | 3.28 |
| 2005 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 64.2 | 81 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 32 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 6.08 |
Outlook: Well, no one can say that they didn't see the signs. They were just ignored. Signing a starting pitcher off of one good season (where he worked with Leo Mazzone and in front of a good defense) following a storied history of arm trouble is not exactly the smartest move. Not surprisingly, Jaret's 2005 season justified all of these initial criticisms. He only pitched 20 innings in April (with an ERA of 9.19!) before he had to be shut down because of shoulder problems. When he came back, he had one good start against Toronto (who slaughtered him the next two times they saw him) and one good start apiece against Seattle and Tampa Bay. Outside of that, he was awful and ended the season with three starts where he averaged 2 innings and 3 earned runs per start. I give Jaret credit for rehabbing and working hard to come back from his initial shoulder problems but I simply don’t think that he has the strength or the stuff to be a starting pitcher in the AL. His K rate was horrible (4.81 per 9) which is a problem if you’re not a groundball pitcher. Couple that with awful control (almost 5 men per 9 innings) and you have the explanation for an ERA over 6.
To date, he has pitched 11.2 innings in spring training and has given up 21(!) hits and 12 earned runs. That's an ERA of 9.26 for those of you without your calculators handy, which is pretty close to what he did last April. In my mind, it would practically take a miracle for Jaret Wright to be a useful pitcher for the Yankees and if he lives up (or is it down) to my expectations, he would go down as one of the worst signings in Yankee history.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| G | GS | Innings | W | L | BB | K | Hld | SV | ERA |
|---|
Posted by: James
Carl Pavano - Starting Pitcher
Age: 30 Years Old.
Three-Year History and splits:
Outlook: Well, they don't call the man "Glass Carl" for nothing. True to many Yankees fans' predictions at the beginning of the season, Pavano broke down after a few good starts. SG over at RLYW has taken a look at Pavano's splits and remains convinced that Pavano's start on May 17, where he threw 133 pitches, eventually led to his injury problems last season. Looking at the stats, he might be onto something there. Pavano was 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA during that time and in the following start and his peripherals were pretty good too, 5.5 Ks and 1.6 BBs per 9. He looked like, surprise surprise, Carl Pavano from 2004. From that point on, 6.46 ERA, 4.4 Ks per 9 and eminently hittable - hmm, not so good. Combine that with the continuation of his injuries into this spring and then the stories/rumors that he was unhappy in NY and he there was just a bad taste in a lot of fans' mouths.
Well, what's done is done. Pavano is under contract for three more years and you can make the case that Carl is one of the most important pieces of the 2006 season. If he can stay healthy and pitch to his ability (which he has only done once since 1998) or at least be a little better than league average, the effect on the rest of the staff is tremendous. First, it takes Jaret Wright and Aaron Small out of the equation and they can then be used as the pitchers of last resort. If he can be a good innings-eater, that puts a lot less stress on the bullpen and we have all seen what good a rested bullpen is for the postseason. If however, Pavano falls victim to the injury bug (again), Wright, Small and hopefully DeSalvo and Rasner (but they'll probably end up using Sturtze and Proctor) will be pushed to the forefront, weakening both the starting and relief pitching. But right now, you can sum up Pavano pretty quickly in a phrase, you just don't know what to expect. Will he be healthy? Will he be any good if he is? For the Yankees sakes, hopefully he is.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 30 Years Old.
Three-Year History and splits:
| SEASON | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | W | L | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 33 | 32 | 2 | 201.0 | 204 | 99 | 96 | 19 | 49 | 133 | 12 | 13 | 4.30 |
| 2004 | 31 | 31 | 2 | 222.1 | 212 | 80 | 74 | 16 | 49 | 139 | 18 | 8 | 3.00 |
| 2005 | 17 | 17 | 1 | 100.0 | 129 | 66 | 53 | 17 | 18 | 56 | 4 | 6 | 4.77 |
Outlook: Well, they don't call the man "Glass Carl" for nothing. True to many Yankees fans' predictions at the beginning of the season, Pavano broke down after a few good starts. SG over at RLYW has taken a look at Pavano's splits and remains convinced that Pavano's start on May 17, where he threw 133 pitches, eventually led to his injury problems last season. Looking at the stats, he might be onto something there. Pavano was 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA during that time and in the following start and his peripherals were pretty good too, 5.5 Ks and 1.6 BBs per 9. He looked like, surprise surprise, Carl Pavano from 2004. From that point on, 6.46 ERA, 4.4 Ks per 9 and eminently hittable - hmm, not so good. Combine that with the continuation of his injuries into this spring and then the stories/rumors that he was unhappy in NY and he there was just a bad taste in a lot of fans' mouths.
Well, what's done is done. Pavano is under contract for three more years and you can make the case that Carl is one of the most important pieces of the 2006 season. If he can stay healthy and pitch to his ability (which he has only done once since 1998) or at least be a little better than league average, the effect on the rest of the staff is tremendous. First, it takes Jaret Wright and Aaron Small out of the equation and they can then be used as the pitchers of last resort. If he can be a good innings-eater, that puts a lot less stress on the bullpen and we have all seen what good a rested bullpen is for the postseason. If however, Pavano falls victim to the injury bug (again), Wright, Small and hopefully DeSalvo and Rasner (but they'll probably end up using Sturtze and Proctor) will be pushed to the forefront, weakening both the starting and relief pitching. But right now, you can sum up Pavano pretty quickly in a phrase, you just don't know what to expect. Will he be healthy? Will he be any good if he is? For the Yankees sakes, hopefully he is.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| G | GS | Innings | W | L | BB | K | ERA |
|---|
03/19: The Incomparable
Posted by: Patrick
There is a great article about Mo at Courant.com:
Saves of a different sort mean the most to Rivera now. He did all he could to keep Alfonso Soriano on the right path when they were teammates, and now is working hard to help Robinson Cano get the most from his immense talent. Melky Cabrera and Jose Veras are also among the kids who gather around Rivera's locker.
"They are the future of the organization and they need to follow a good role model," Rivera says. "One day, some kid is going to follow them. I just want them to remember how I try to tell them the truth, how I try to teach them. I don't want them to remember me for what I do. I want them to remember me for who I am. This is what I do, but this is not who I am. That's the only thing that I want, to be a guy who makes changes in somebody's life."
"They are the future of the organization and they need to follow a good role model," Rivera says. "One day, some kid is going to follow them. I just want them to remember how I try to tell them the truth, how I try to teach them. I don't want them to remember me for what I do. I want them to remember me for who I am. This is what I do, but this is not who I am. That's the only thing that I want, to be a guy who makes changes in somebody's life."
03/17: We're All Thinking It...
Posted by: James
...but Mike A. actually puts it into words.
Mike A. should think about making that an open petition and having people who agree sign in the comments. I'm definitely on board. The only difference is that I never thought that was a good signing. I hated it when it was announced, during and after the season...and hate it now. I think it might actually be one of the worst signings in Yankee history! Still, strangely enough, I actually started pulling for the guy during the season. I know he stunk but he worked his butt off to try to come back for the end of the 2005 season and he genuinely looked like he wished he could justify the signing. Well, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. Maybe he just needs to take a year off from baseball to heal up but for now, he looks like done (though I hope he can prove us both wrong).
But I see now that I was wrong. I was so naive, I remember thinking you had a legit shot at winning 18 games. You were going to be at the back of the rotation for a team with a dominant offense and a dominant end game bullpen, what wasn't there to like about that situation? Just about a month ago I thought you could be a very good reliever, after all you did earn your spot in Atlanta after serving as John Smoltz's primary set-up man down the stretch in 2003. But now, I think you'd most benefit the team by pitching BP, you know, helping the hitters gain confidence. You seem to be good at that.
...
To steal a line from Van Wilder: there comes a time in everyman's life when he has to realize a bad investment, and simply cut his losses. It just might be best for both of us if you packed up your locker and left. Sorry things had to turn out like this, but I want you to know it's not me, it's you.
...
To steal a line from Van Wilder: there comes a time in everyman's life when he has to realize a bad investment, and simply cut his losses. It just might be best for both of us if you packed up your locker and left. Sorry things had to turn out like this, but I want you to know it's not me, it's you.
Mike A. should think about making that an open petition and having people who agree sign in the comments. I'm definitely on board. The only difference is that I never thought that was a good signing. I hated it when it was announced, during and after the season...and hate it now. I think it might actually be one of the worst signings in Yankee history! Still, strangely enough, I actually started pulling for the guy during the season. I know he stunk but he worked his butt off to try to come back for the end of the 2005 season and he genuinely looked like he wished he could justify the signing. Well, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. Maybe he just needs to take a year off from baseball to heal up but for now, he looks like done (though I hope he can prove us both wrong).
03/17: Grading the Yanks Offseason
Posted by: James
Ben Jacobs over at The Hardball Times posted the final third of his Offseason Rankings and the Yankees come in second (the Dodgers were first). That's pretty high praise coming from a die-hard Red Sox fan (you may remember Ben from the Rivals in Exile pieces that he did with Larry Mahnken last season). Here's a quick excerpt and head over over to read the rest.
Really, the Yankees just didn't do anything wrong this offseason. They may have overspent in a couple places, but they can afford it. And every player they added can help them.
The big move was obviously the signing of Johnny Damon for $52 million over four years. That's a lot of money, and it will carry him through his age 35 season, which is always a risk, but it will be worth it for at least the first two years. Last year, the Yankees got a .629 OPS and terrible defense at center field. Even if Damon declines both offensively and defensively, he will be a huge upgrade for the Yankees.
The big move was obviously the signing of Johnny Damon for $52 million over four years. That's a lot of money, and it will carry him through his age 35 season, which is always a risk, but it will be worth it for at least the first two years. Last year, the Yankees got a .629 OPS and terrible defense at center field. Even if Damon declines both offensively and defensively, he will be a huge upgrade for the Yankees.
03/17: Heir Apparent
Posted by: Patrick
Mattingly dreams of managing in bigs:
Torre's the man. But, when the time comes, I do think Donnie would be a good choice. And having him be a coach under Torre like this is a great way to get him ready for it.
Despite the presence of former big-league managers Mazzilli, Bowa, Tony Pena and Joe Kerrigan on the coaching staff, it is widely assumed that Mattingly will take over for Torre whenever he decides to hand over the reins. ...
With a job to do as the Yankees' first baseman, captain and face of the team, Mattingly would simply observe how his various managers conducted their business, dealt with players and handled the game.
None of them impressed Mattingly as much as Torre has during his tenure in New York.
With a job to do as the Yankees' first baseman, captain and face of the team, Mattingly would simply observe how his various managers conducted their business, dealt with players and handled the game.
None of them impressed Mattingly as much as Torre has during his tenure in New York.
Torre's the man. But, when the time comes, I do think Donnie would be a good choice. And having him be a coach under Torre like this is a great way to get him ready for it.
Posted by: James
Shawn Chacon - Starting Pitcher
Age: 28 Years Old.
Three-Year History and splits:
Outlook: If you look at Chacon's work for both Colorado and the Yankees last season quickly, there really wasn't all that much difference between the two except for a couple more walks there, a couple less hits here and oh, huge differences in ERA and batting average allowed (2.85 ERA, .225 AVG with the Yanks vs. 4.09 ERA, .260 AVG in Colorado). SG did some legwork with his splits and makes a good point that all of a sudden Shawn became very good (or just very lucky) with runners on and that his batting average on balls in play took a nosedive. Looking at those numbers and factoring in the DH and other league adjustments, I think that most fans will agree that some regression is inevitable - it's just a question of how much there will be.
Those are the negatives, here are some positives. He just turned 28, he doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm, he's finally left Colorado and is now pitching for an organization that he (outwardly at least) seems to love. If you add his attitude on the mound (I fondly remember him stepping to and jawing at A.J. Pierzynski), you have a lot of reasons to like what Shawn brings to the team. All he has to do now is show that he can be better than average and stay healthy (he's maxed out at only 160 innings in his major-league career) and Yankees fans will love him.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 28 Years Old.
Three-Year History and splits:
| SEASON | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | W | L | SV | HLD | BLSV | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 137.0 | 124 | 73 | 70 | 12 | 58 | 93 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -- | 4.60 |
| 2004 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 63.1 | 71 | 52 | 50 | 12 | 52 | 52 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 9 | 7.11 |
| 2005 | 27 | 24 | 0 | 152.2 | 135 | 59 | 58 | 14 | 66 | 79 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | -- | 3.44 |
Outlook: If you look at Chacon's work for both Colorado and the Yankees last season quickly, there really wasn't all that much difference between the two except for a couple more walks there, a couple less hits here and oh, huge differences in ERA and batting average allowed (2.85 ERA, .225 AVG with the Yanks vs. 4.09 ERA, .260 AVG in Colorado). SG did some legwork with his splits and makes a good point that all of a sudden Shawn became very good (or just very lucky) with runners on and that his batting average on balls in play took a nosedive. Looking at those numbers and factoring in the DH and other league adjustments, I think that most fans will agree that some regression is inevitable - it's just a question of how much there will be.
Those are the negatives, here are some positives. He just turned 28, he doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm, he's finally left Colorado and is now pitching for an organization that he (outwardly at least) seems to love. If you add his attitude on the mound (I fondly remember him stepping to and jawing at A.J. Pierzynski), you have a lot of reasons to like what Shawn brings to the team. All he has to do now is show that he can be better than average and stay healthy (he's maxed out at only 160 innings in his major-league career) and Yankees fans will love him.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| G | GS | Innings | W | L | BB | K | ERA |
|---|
